Saturday, July 20, 2013

To Rotate or Not to Rotate - That is the Question (GK)

What's this Goalkeeper Rotation Strategy All About, Anyway?
  
Curiosity killed the cat.  That should be the subtitle of this article.  Most of the FPL lessons I've learned have been learned just a little too late.  Last year, my goalkeeper strategy ended up being laughable.  If it didn't take up too much space in this article and didn't make me look like such a complete idiot, I'd describe it and give you all a nice laugh.  Instead, I will tell you that I didn't know much about a goalkeeper rotation strategy until after last season ended and the creatures of the FPL world came stumbling out of their caves and started discussing season strategy in earnest over the past three weeks or so.

I unconsciously always "kinda" had a strategy in mind, but it was always something along the lines of "Well shit, what if __________ gets hurt and doesn't play; what the hell am I gonna do!?!"  That was about the extent of it.  Then a few weeks ago, as I started to dig deeper into "real" strategies to start the season with, I saw some mention of this goalkeeper rotation strategy, mostly focused on the idea of finding two budget keepers with a favorable home and away rotation schedule.  I had two immediate reactions.  The first was, "Brilliant; why didn't I think of that before!?"  The second was, "Wait a second, could that really work?"
 
My second question was brought on by the fact that when it comes to FPL, I more or less ascribe to the chaos theory; that anything can and will happen despite our best use of logic and rationale.  How else do you explain Jonathan Walters scoring two own goals and missing a penalty in one game last year or the fact that Ali Al-Habsi scored more than twice as many points in away fixtures than he did in home fixtures during the first 20 gameweeks of last season?
 
When it comes to a strategy of rotating keepers, my mind starts going crazy, mainly because rotating keepers involves something with the goalkeeping position that I don't like to spend much time on each gameweek; deciding on one keeper vs the other.  FPL is unpredictable enough as it is.  I've seen so many games where, expecting a team at home and in good form to win handily, I've been disappointed to see them lose.  Yes, the Readings of the world can march into the Etihad and put a spanking on the City boys just as easily as Guzan can save a penalty and grab a tenner at home to United.
 
In my mind, the concept of rotating keepers and relying on the home team keeper to have a better game than the away team keeper was fraught with conflict and uncertainty.  The concept made sense, but FPL addicts have short memories, and mine are full of gameweeks last season where I played the conventional wisdom of relying on home defenders who came up short, both against strong AND weak opponents, while my mini league rival snapped up a clean sheet with their Reading defender playing away to a much stronger team.   This worried me.  A lot.  With two keepers, one playing home and one playing away, I was scared at how many points I could potentially lose by picking the wrong guy and having a bucketload of points sitting on my bench.  The pain that that would cause was almost unthinkable.

So, with this new seemingly logical concept of a home/away budget goalkeeping strategy battling it out inside my head with my intuitive skepticism, I did what most people afflicted with crazy amounts of FPL curiosity would do; I created graphs and charts and spent way too much time over the past week going back through last year's stats to put this theory to the test.  After all, the difference in many mini leagues could be 15-20 points; a spread that easily could be covered by a good goalkeeping strategy vs the preposterously stupid approach I used last year.

My Research Approach

To test things out, I started by looking at the 20 goalkeepers who started gw1 during last year's 2012-2013 EPL season.  I used the assumption that most everyone utilizing a home/away rotation strategy were doing so to save important season-starting budget money, therefore I only looked at rotation combinations that would require an outlay of 9.5m or less.  I also only focused on the first 20 gameweeks of the season, figuring that this strategy starts out as primarily a way to make it to the January wildcard, where widespread changes could be made and the strategy could be changed if it wasn't working.

The first thing I looked at were how many games each of the gw1 starters played in during the first 20 gameweeks of last season.  The results were a little surprising.  Of the 20 keepers who started last year's season, the number of games each played in the first 20 weeks were as follows:

<10        3     Given, Green, Davis
10-15     7     Szczesny, Ruddy, Vorm, Federici, Friedel, DeGea, Foster
15-19     5     Schwarzer, Reina, Krul, Jaaskelainen, Cech
20          5     Mignolet, Begovic, Al-Habsi, Hart, Howard

This scared me right off the bat.  Relying on the home/away rotation strategy looked daunting considering that only half of the keepers who started the season featured in 15 or more games during the first 20 of the season.  That already meant that 10 of the keepers would have had to have been transferred out or you'd be left with one reliable keeper, essentially throwing out the home/away strategy.

So I then focused on the 8 keepers who played in 19-20 games during the first 20 gameweeks last season.  They were Mignolet, Schwarzer, Begovic, Jaaskelainen, Al-Habsi, Cech, Hart and Howard.  Only 5 of these 8 were priced at 5.0 or less, which meant they were the only 5 whose combinations I could look at to truly see how a home/away strategy would have worked last year.

Before getting into the detail of the specific keepers and the combinations that I would review, I looked at overall 20-game statistics for all of the keepers.  What I found there made this strategy look even less likely to come up with results that would impress me.  Here are a few quick stats that jumped out at me.  When looking specifically at the 20 keepers who started gw1 last year, there were 1,005 total points accumulated amongst them from gw1 to gw20.  Of those 1,005 total points, 534 were tallied by the home keeper, with 471 scored by the visitor.  That's a 53.13% to 46.87% spread; not exactly a stat that would cause you to jump on the home/away bandwagon.  All in all, home keepers averaged 3.543 points per game played vs 3.171 points per game played for the away keepers. At a difference of a little less than 0.4 pts per game, you're looking at an 8 point swing over the course of 20 games.  Not crazy exciting, is it?

Despite how the raw data looked, I still had not looked at how any of the data applied to the specific home/away rotation combinations that involved the 5 keepers in my study.  That was my next step.  What results would I find?  Whatever they were, I sure hoped they were worth the crazy amount of time that I had spent combing through the numbers AND the crazy amount of time you're spending following along with me through this lengthy article (if in fact you are still around - and I wouldn't blame you if you weren't; but hell, I did the research and I'm gonna follow it through;).

The Testing and The Results (Please Bear With Me)

Ok, so now it was crunch time.  Time to put this home/away goalkeeping strategy to the test.  Looking at the 5 keepers who were priced 5.0 or less, who could combine to create home/away strategies priced 9.5m or less, and who included only those keepers playing in at least 19 of the first 20 games, I had 7 potential combinations to look at.  They were:

Mignolet/Begovic
Mignolet/Jaaskelainen
Schwarzer/Begovic
Schwarzer/Jaaskelainen
Al-Habsi/Begovic
Al-Habsi/Jaaskelainen
Jaaskelainen/Begovic

My approach for the test was simple.  Using a strict home/away strategy, I determined that for gameweeks where one keeper played at home and the other played away, the home keeper would be used automatically (why else would a home/away strategy be used?).  For gameweeks in which both keepers played at home or both keepers played away, I selected the keeper who had the easier fixture based on my understanding and recollection of last season's form, table, etc. 

Here is how things panned out:

Mignolet/Begovic:

# of games allowing for home/away rotation:     7/20
# of games away keeper scored more points:      1/7
Points lost:                                                            2
Total Points:                                                          87
Cash Outlay:                                                         9.5m
Value:                                                                   9.158

Mignolet/Jaaskelainen:
# of games allowing for home/away rotation:     15/20
# of games away keeper scored more points:      6/15
Points lost:                                                           18
Total Points:                                                         87
Cash Outlay:                                                         9.5
Value:                                                                   9.158

Schwarzer/Begovic:
# of games allowing for home/away rotation:     12/20
# of games away keeper scored more points:      5/12
Points lost:                                                           15
Total Points:                                                        76
Cash Outlay:                                                        9.5
Value:                                                                  8.000

Schwarzer/Jaaskelainen:
# of games allowing for home/away rotation:    7/20
# of games away keeper scored more points:     3/7
Points lost:                                                          6
Total Points:                                                       68
Cash Outlay:                                                       9.5
Value:                                                                 7.158

Al Habsi/Begovic:
# of games allowing for home/away rotation:    12/20
# of games away keeper scored more points:     7/12
Points lost:                                                          31
Total Points:                                                       61
Cash Outlay:                                                       9.5
Value:                                                                 6.421

Al Habsi/Jaaskelainen:
# of games allowing for home/away rotation:   9/20
# of games away keeper scored more points:    3/9
Points lost:                                                         10
Total Points:                                                       73
Cash Outlay:                                                       9.5
Value:                                                                 7.684

Jaaskelainen/Begovic:   
# of games allowing for home/away rotation:    20/20
# of games away keeper scored more points:     9/20
Points lost:                                                          43
Total Points:                                                       79
Cash Outlay:                                                       9.0
Value:                                                                 8.778

The Results
 
So, we've made it this far.  I now had enough data to compare a strict set of home/away rotation combinations against the "find a guy you like and stick with him for every game" strategy; or as I sometimes like to refer to as the "big guy and nobody" approach.  Based on last year's data, here are some comparisons to look at:
 
(Please excuse the formatting; I still am having a tough time with this on the Blogger app)

  Goalkeepers                              Total Points              Cash Outlay                    Value

Begovic/nobody                               91                              8.5                              10.706
Mignolet/Begovic                             87                              9.5                                9.158
Mignolet/Jaaskelainen                     87                              9.5                                9.158
Jaaskelainen/nobody                        76                              8.5                               8.941
Mignolet/nobody                             79                              9.0                                8.778
Jaaskelainen/Begovic                      79                              9.0                                8.778
Schwarzer/Begovic                         76                               9.5                               8.000
Al Habsi/Jaaskelainen                     73                               9.5                               7.684
Cech/nobody                                   77                              10.5                              7.333
Schwarzer/Jaaskelainen                   68                              9.5                               7.158
Schwarzer/nobody                           63                              9.0                                7.000
Al Habsi/Begovic                            61                              9.5                                 6.421
Hart/nobody                                     70                              11.0                               6.364

These results leave me with a number of reactions.  First and foremost, it does seem that a home/away rotation strategy does seem to work better than picking one of the elite keepers and leaving them to their own devices.  Finding a cheap guy who has an exceptional year, as was the case for Begovic, is pretty much a good stroke of luck but one that I'm sure was received joyfully by those who picked him as their sole keeper last year.  The key seems to be finding low to mid priced guys who can be effective and either rotating them or relying on them to shoulder the load and peform the way that Jaaskelainen and Mignolet did last year (at least to get you through to the January wildcard).

Sadly for me, if you can withstand the gutpunches that will come as your away keeper outscores your home guy, the rotation strategy looks like a pretty good option, and one that I wil look at more closely as I put my squad together over the next couple of weeks.

The debates surrounding this strategy will continue, and each FPL manager will probably be able to find empirical data to support the way that they want to go.  Begovic's standout start and Al-Habsi's unlikely tally of 40 away points to 19 home points during the first half of last season are two pieces of data that could easily sway you away from the home/away rotation strategy, but the fact that home/away rotation strategies accounted for 2 of the top 3 point tallies in my test also shows that the rotation can work effectively.

In another interesting twist, it was odd to me that the Jaaskelainen/Begovic rotation option allowed for every single one of the first 20 games of the season to be played with a home/away rotation approach.  It was set up PERFECTLY for the home/away rotation.  However, a total of 43 points were lost when the away keeper outscored the home keeper, and the combination also resulted in 12 less points than Begovic scored on his own and only 3 more points than Jussi scored on his own.  Interesting to say the least.

At the end of the day, we'll all probably go with our gut anyway.

Okay, time for me to finally do some tinkering.. good luck everyone!
 
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P.S. Thanks for bearing with the inconsistent formatting.  I will clean that up later, along with adding some graphics. If you have any advice for me on how to fix formatting issues on Blogger.com please send them on.  It seems to have a mind of its own sometimes.... Cheers!

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Here Comes the FPL Season - Are You Ready? (Thank You to my Twitter friends)

 
Wow..this is a biggie.  We're days away from the Fantasy Premier League season officially "starting", as the 2013-2014 prices get set and the 2.5 million members of FPL nation stop what they're doing and spread the word in droves, tweeting about bargain defenders, the astronomically high price of bringing RVP into your team, and wondering what everyone else is deciding; especially their perennial mini league rivals.
 
My introduction to FPL was memorable.  It was about a week and a half before the 2011-2012 season started and some friends of mine invited me to join their "mini-league".  I had no idea what the hell that meant, but abandoned the ESPN game I had played for the past two years and joined.  I put most of my team together, but like most people, had a few changes I wanted to make the day before the season started.  Haha.  The afternoon before the EPL/FPL season started I went to log in.... NOTHING.  Thank God I had put my team in place and only had a few changes I wanted to make, because NO ONE got into the site that day as far as I knew...it crashed and people who hadn't put their teams together at all were completely SOL; as the site did not come back up until after the deadline for GW1 had passed!  The FPL site apologized up and down, letting most leagues "restart" at GW2 and giving everyone a "free" WC to use between GW1 and GW2.  But the damage had been done.  I was not feeling all that great about FPL at that point.  As far as I was concerned, the problem had cast a dark cloud over the entire season, and having had no problems with the ESPN game the two prior seasons, over the entire FPL game itself.
 
Last year things were different.  Remembering the difficulties of the 2011-2012 season, I made a conscious effort to do my homework and prepare early.  Unfortunately for me, I was still a beginner, and my "homework" meant little more than buying a membership to Fantasy Football Scout, combing the Members Only section for player projections, and using the season-long projections as part of the basis for my gw1 squad selection.  It was the best I had at the time.  I spent hours on it; creating a spreadsheet showing almost every EPL player, their week by week projections, their starting prices, and their expected Points to Price ratios. I naively felt like I had really put a lot of thought into this all-important decision and that my mini-league rivals would be put to shame.
 
What a difference a year makes.  I'm still relatively a beginner, and I continue to learn more all the time.  Since finding Fantasy Football Scout and using it as the sole source of information and "scouting" to help in determining my 2012-2013 FPL squad, I joined Twitter last year and my experience with FPL changed entirely.  Instead of being an outsider almost a world away, sneaking momentary glimpses of the English Premier League through my tv set on Saturdays and Sundays and through the American studio hosts who also were almost a world away in both geography and understanding, I was actually talking to people IN ENGLAND; people who could go to an EPL game across town whenever they wanted.  For the first time ever, and through the medium that only Twitter could provide, I felt like the English Premier League was something that I was a PART OF.

I can't overemphasize the difference in how that felt.  It's like the difference between reading a history book about a Beatles concert and going back in time and being at the concert.  Twitter put me in touch with people who walked past the stadiums I watched on tv every day; people who experienced the world I watched through my television and could tell me what it was really like.  When a game-changing event happened on my tv, the very same afternoon I could read tweets from people who were right there at the game and who could tell me all about the things that can't be communicated through a television crew and a still camera.  It was as close as I could ever come to actually being there; and it was AWESOME.

I am forever indebted to my UK friends for bringing this world so much closer to me, and for teaching me things about FPL that I couldn't have learned otherwise.  The majority of people in America cannot fathom what being a football fanatic is like or even means.  Sadly, absent a few friends who understand what it's all about and fewer still who have agreed to come to a pub to watch a game or two, being a football fan in America is a solitary pursuit, but a pursuit shared with like-minded friends on Twitter quite easily.

Ok, so here we go with year 3.  Incrementally speaking it's only a one year difference, but experientially speaking this year feels different.  Sharing my passion for EPL/FPL with so many people who "live" EPL/FPL has been a game changer for me.  Unfortunately though, all of the great stuff I've learned through talking to so many knowledgeable fans has made FPL harder.  I've seen enough marginal players scoring or creating fantastic goals that it's easy to see many of them "going off" and "reaching their potential" or "having a breakout year".

The FPL site is rumored to be reset soon, and 2.5 million of us are going to be going absolutely crazy.  Twitter will be knocked off its hinges by all of us letting each other know that the site has gone live, updating each other with bargain price defenders, startup prices for players newly transferred into the EPL, players who have moved from one team to another, or who came in during last year's January transfer window and whose price is now "adjusted".

People say that very little work gets done on New Years Eve.  I would venture to bet that the day the FPL site "opens for business" is right up there and could give New Year's Eve a run for its money.  By all accounts it's only a few days away and will feel like Christmas in July.  I am not only extremely excited, I am also extremely grateful and thankful for Twitter and more importantly, all of my FPL fanatic friends who share my passion and graciously grant me a window into the world that I otherwise would only be able to see through my television screen.

Thanks to all of you who have welcomed the Yank and have helped me feel like I'm right there with you.  It's been amazing.

If you are new to FPL and are looking for helpful, enthusiastic, knowledgeable fans and players to learn from, please "follow" all 50 of the Twitter accounts that are included in my Twitter EPL/FPL list.  You can find them all right here; and they will not disappoint you:
https://twitter.com/EPLFanForLife/epl-fpl-and-stuff

I will follow up shortly with an FPL strategy article, exploring some of the questions that we all ask ourselves as we put together the 15-man squad that will set the tone of our FPL season.  Until then, CHEERS everyone....a heartfelt THANK YOU goes out to all of you; and you know who you are.

Walt

Please follow me on Twitter


Saturday, July 6, 2013

Mid-Summer FPL Status Report

It's agonizing, right? We're smack dab in the middle of the off-season, the official #FPL site has gone dark, the transfer window is officially open for business, and the only certainty is that there are roughly 2.5 million people sitting on the edge of their seats with all questions and no answers.

After sitting back and thinking for a moment, there are actually some things we do know, but they too are really only things we know about the past and the present; not the future.  These things too, as they relate to the FPL season to come, also lead directly to one place; more questions.

When it all boils down to it, there are three distinct variables that connect last season's FPL season with the season we all now anticipate. They are:

1) What happened last year
2) What has happened since the season ended
3) What is going to happen between today and August 17

What Happened Last Year

Wouldn't it be great if last season's performance was a direct indicator of how players would perform this year? I have no statistics to correlate one season's performance to the next, but it's only natural to look to the Van Persie's and the Michu's and the Bale's and the Lambert's and the Gerrard's and the Mata's and the Jaaskelainen's - Jasskelainen!?!? - to pay rich dividends this time around as well.

But what about the guys who came on strong at the end of last season? What about Coutinho and Sturridge and Kagawa and Lukaku? Will the strong end to the season carry forward through the long summer and into the first few fixtures of the season to come?



Although it's easy to assume that that is the case, things have definitely changed and will continue to change over the coming month and a half.  But just how much? Enough to make last season's statistics a mistaken indicator of what's to come? New managers, new players coming and going, World Cup qualifiers, Confederations Cup, pre-season tours, time off on holiday, stress surrounding potential contract extensions or transfer rumours. All of these things affect a player's outlook, attitude, and ability to gel with a new squad or manager. Some players are affected positively and some players are affected negatively.

How much will last year's performance influence the 15 guys you select to start your 2013-2014 FPL season with? Many FPL managers will struggle with this thought over the next 41 days, and I will be right there with you.

What's Happened Since the Season Ended

For all intents and purposes, the 2012-2013 English Premier League season ended quietly. Manchester United had long ago wrapped up their title and the bottom of the table was all but sorted. May 19, 2013 seems like forever ago.

Since then, 5 teams have undergone managerial changes - with 4 of them being in the top 6 sides. That leaves Arsene Wenger and Andre Villas-Boas as the only two managers in the top 6 to be leading their sides into the next campaign. Everyone else - Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Everton - all have managerial transitions to endure and the inevitable acclimitization period that such a change inherently brings with it. Make no mistake about it, these changes will impact these clubs as the new season gets underway. Don't forget DiCanio and Sunderland either - he has caused quite a stir both inside and outside the club with his sometimes unorthodox approach to managing professional football players.

In addition to the managerial changes and full-scale club transitions that they involve, there have been 101 confirmed transfers since the season ended on May 19. Of those 101 confirmed transfers, 43 have involved players moving into the EPL from a different league, 51 have involved players leaving the EPL, and 7 have involved players being transferred from one EPL team to another.  Keep in mind that the large majority of these 101 confirmed transfers have been confirmed during the past 6 days!

Notable transfers that may affect your FPL outlook as we make our way through the summer include:

Carroll from Liverpool to West Ham
Mignolet from Sunderland to Liverpool
Sanogo to Arsenal
Ratt to West Ham
Figueroa to Hull City
van Wolfswinkel to Norwich
Stekelenburg to Fulham
Navas to Manchester City
Fernandinho to Manchester City
Schurrle to Chelsea
Amat to Swansea
Kolo Toure from Manchester City to Liverpool
McGregor to Hull City
Mannone from Arsenal to Sunderland
Shelvey from Liverpool to Swansea
Anelka to West Brom
Van Ginkel to Chelsea
Paulinho to Tottenham



Again we're left with more questions than answers.

Which Carroll will show up for West Ham this season, having finally settled somewhere he feels wanted? Will Mannone start for Sunderland?  How will Schurrle and Van Ginkel fit in at Chelsea? Will Fulham's defense improve and make Stekelenburg a viable FPL option in goal?

How will Fernandinho and Navas slot in at City and where does that leave Dzeko, who conceivably would benefit greatly from Navas' ability to jet down the wing and lob crosses into the big man week after week? How will Shelvey's move affect last year's Newcomer of the Year, Mr. Michu, and his position on the pitch? What does Paulinho's move mean for Tottenham's midfield, specifically Sigurdsson, who was used sparingly following a pre-season full of significant hype following the arm-wrestling match between Rodgers and Villas-Boas?

How will Moyes respond to the unenviable scrutiny of following the most celebrated manager in the history of the English top division? How will the players respond? How will Martinez keep Everton's momentum going with the 3-4-3 formation he seems intent on installing (Seamus Coleman anyone?) How will the circus act that was Chelsea fan's relationship with their manager play out this year, now that the Chosen One has returned to the team he "has always loved"? Will Pellegrini bring stability to the clubhouse of millionaires that make up the Manchester City squad? What will happen to the poor Sunderland souls who are caught with any variation of sugar, natural form or not, pulsing through their systems following DiCanio's institution of modernly bizarre team rules?



How will new boys Cardiff City, Crystal Palace and Hull City fare? Are they worth investing in at any position?

It's only July 6. There are 41 days left until the season begins on August 17. Given the questions raised by the moves made to date and the changes that will have each of our heads spinning, there is still so much more to come that may completely change our approach to the new FPL season.

What Will Happen Between Now and August 17

The greatest league of the most popular sport in the world is never short of excitement. With no games being played there is really only one thing to keep the thousands of journalists whose careers revolve around the Premier League in business; transfer rumors. Log onto Twitter for 30 seconds and you're bound to run across a handful or a dozen of them.  It's what keeps the EPL world spinning on its axis between May and August. And the rumors are flying fast and furious.

The Thiago Alcantara move to Manchester United has been "confirmed" multiple times since shortly before he led Spain to the UEFA Under-21 European Championships earlier this summer. If that move ever materializes, coupled with Moyes' insistence that Rooney is going to stay at ManU this season, where does that leave those of us convinced that Kagawa finally seemed like he was beginning to settle in as a long-awaited and much-needed consistent midfield Manchester United FPL option as the season unfolded?



Will the John Ruddy rumored move to Chelsea materialize? Where will that leave Norwich? What in the world is going to happen with Suarez? Will the Higuain deal to Arsenal finally go through, and which Gonzalo will show up if it does?

And these are only the rumors we know about now! Many more will come, and unfortunately for those of us who are unsettled by this fact, the transfer window will stay open right up until gw3 of the coming season. I hate that!

So for now, there is a lot that we know, a lot that we don't know, and a lot that we don't yet know we don't know. The next 6 weeks are going to be a roller coaster; a roller coaster that many of us secretly enjoy because it includes the final pieces of the puzzle that all stews together in mid August to give us all of the information we'll have available to us for that all-important few days prior to August 17 when we finish fiddling, complete our tinkering, say a final good luck prayer, and click CONFIRM TEAM.

Enjoy it FPL'ers....I know I will.

Walt